Wednesday, July 12, 2006

India, Israel, Iran, N. Korea

Things have heated up dramatically in the last 36 hrs. Savage barbarism on the trains of Mumbai has massacred hundreds of people, while Hezbollah has opened a 2nd front with Israel which has picked up the gauntlet. Iran and N. Korea continue to play the great powers off of each other. Many threads - all connected by what?

All of these are intended to keep the democracies off balance. Centers of power can only pay attention to a given number of crises - China used the Cuban missile crisis to invade India in 1962, and the US could not come to India's aid till weeks after the fact. Israel is perfectly capable of handling Hamas and Hezbollah but are they merely opening acts to soften up defenses in advance of Iran's still mysterious plans? India made a business decision in summer 1999 and again late 2001 not to destroy Pakistan (after Pakistan's invasion of Kargil and after the bombing of India's Parliament), rationalizing the economic cost of a final, frontal assault as too high and choosing a battle of attrition, which it is now paying for. The US focuses on Iran one week and is distracted by N. Korea the next.

Something big is afoot, I fear. Two months before 9/11, a few phone calls from Osama sent the US Navy rushing out of Middle East ports, and 2 days before 9/11, OBL had a principal opponent of the Taliban, Ahmad Shah Massoud assassinated. I have no idea how to divine the Islamazoids' intent nor of course Kim Jr.'s loony mind, but I hardly think the flareup of the last few weeks is coincidence.

What should we do? When the opponent has you off balance, best to make him get off-balance too. Summon the democracies and use a new organizational vehicle to strangulate Iran and Syria and North Korea and Pakistan. Name the enemy of Islamic fundamentalism and make it clear to the Saudis, Egyptians, and the rest what needs to be done to the zoid financiers and preachers. Make China responsible for North Korea - we should leave S. Korea which is capable of defending itself and where we are unwelcome, and let go of Japan's leash when it comes to defence and nuclear weaponization. The Cold War depended on the US keeping its countries in line and the Russians their countries in line; it would be nice if the Treasury department was not in hock to the Chinese so that we could implement such a strategy for the Korean peninsula without financial pressure.

As for Pakistan, the day of reckoning will be costlier the longer it is put off. Musharraf is not an ally, only an Arafat with a suit and tie. India and the US have to start coming to terms with what it will take solve the Pakistan problem - a full-scale invasion, defanging of the nuclear sites, and eventual breakup of Pakistan into its 4 states. It is not better to have a few hundred people die every few months.


At 4:07 PM, Anonymous Neandertal said...

Very nice blog you have here. As time permits, I will read your other posts.

I, too, have felt that something is afoot with all the recent news. I haven't felt this way since 9/11, and find myself wondering about what kind of world my children will inhabit.

My pattern recognition processing is a little slow, and you gave it a good boost by the comment about putting us off balance. That may be one key.

I fear that the sense of equilibrium in some in the West is already way out of whack, which will make it that much harder to respsond pro-actively rather than re-actively. Much of Europe, it seems, would be happy for the US to fall on its butt, for example.

There are no easy answers, I suppose.

At 1:34 AM, Anonymous jodetoad said...

After reading for hours, yours is the first opinion I've read that is similar to my take on this.

The timing could be coincidental, but add in the flagrant stalling of Iran, and its infiltration into Iraq, the control of both Hezbollah and Hamas from Syria and Iran, and the connections of all parties to terrorists, and it looks to me like part of a plan. N. Korea may be coincidence, maybe not.

Additional elements that may be pieces of the puzzle are the direction things are taking in Somalia, and the failure of the "peace" accords in the Sudan, which has been dragged out also. OBL mentioned both recently, whatever that's worth.

I feel as if we have about 1/3 of the pieces to a puzzle, and if we could see more, we would see a plan unfolding. We do know these people are quite capable of executing complex and secret projects.

I'm not much into conspiracies, but if Syria and Iran have access to some of Saddam's WMD's, which is not unreasonable to assume, Israel may have some unpleasant surprises.

If indeed some plan is being implemented, it is likely to include us also. I hope we're wrong. My own feeling is of a pattern almost but not quite seen.

Personal note - my 76 year old mother just had a cornea surgery 2 weeks ago, and is thrilled that she has the potential of better vision, perhaps even of driving again. I appreciate very much the efforts of people in your line of work to help others to better vision and better lives.

At 10:24 PM, Anonymous senatortombstone said...

One thing that I would encourage all Western governments to do is to write up an amendment to their constitutions banning sharia law from ever being implemented in that country.

Muslim leaders from various Islamic enclaves throughout the EU are already demanding the right apply sharia law to their communities.

It is only a matter of time before Islamic immigration and birth rates make Muslims the majority in the EU; the Europeans must do something.

A ban on sharia would let the muslims know that it is they who must adapt to our ways, not we to theirs.


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